It’s no secret that the superhero movie genre is not in the best shape right now. Gone are the days when any blockbuster based on a comic book was guaranteed to sell tickets, as many Marvel and DC releases of 2023 can attest to.

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The dubious honor of kicking off 2024’s slate of superhero flicks falls on Madame Web, the first entry in Sony’s Spider-Man universe since April 2022’s Morbius. Although the Jared Leto vehicle may have spawned a legion of memes and earned itself a place in the Halls of Movie Infamy, its notoriety didn’t translate into big ticket sales. Remember when Sony put it back in cinemas, to much ridicule?

Likewise, Madame Web is the first film based on Marvel characters to come out since The Marvels in November 2023, which went down as the lowest-grossing MCU movie ever made. It’s also worth pointing out that both films have female leads and you could even argue that Dakota Johnson’s Cassandra Webb owes it to every other comic book heroine to prove that female-led superhero movies can still draw in audiences.

Unfortunately, that is not looking to be the case. Box office projections for Madame Web are in and they are not pretty. But will it end up being a bigger box office bomb than The Marvels and Morbius?

Madame Web‘s disastrous box office predictions, explained

As per Box Office Pro, Madame Web is headed for a domestic opening weekend haul of $25-35 million once it hits theaters on Valentine’s Day. This is then expected to lead to an overall domestic gross somewhere between $56-101 million once its theatrical run is up.

If that opening weekend figure sounds pretty paltry to you, that’s because it is. For comparison, The Marvels brought home $46.1 million over its first few days in cinemas. However, the Brie Larson sequel only made back less than double that on the whole, ending its domestic box office with a mere $84.5 million. So if Madame Web ends up at the top end of its estimated projections then it could perhaps out-gross The Marvels in the U.S.

The real kicker, however, is that Madame Web‘s opening weekend estimates are even lower than that of Morbius, which managed a domestic opening haul of $39 million. Ultimately, it accrued $73.9 from North American distributors. That means Madame Web has a lower bar to cross if it hopes to beat Morbius’ domestic haul, but its opening weekend predictions suggest it’s going to have a tough time doing even that.

Examining how Morbius and The Marvels were able to roughly double their domestic openings across their runs, it stands to reason that Madame Web could achieve something similar. So, if projections are accurate, it could ensnare around $50-70 million from U.S. theaters. This would naturally make it an even bigger bomb than either of those two previously infamously underwhelming releases.

In other words, there’s a strong chance 2024’s superhero movies aren’t going to fare any better than last year’s. Deadpool 3, it’s all on you.